Two-step approach for the prediction of future type 2 diabetes risk

Muhammad Abdulghani, Tamam Abdul-Ghani, Michael P. Stern, Jasmina Karavic, Tiinamaija Tuomi, Insoma Bo, Ralph A. DeFronzo, Leif Groop

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19 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

OBJECTIVE - To develop a model for the prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk on the basis of a multivariate logistic model and 1-h plasma glucose concentration (1-h PG). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - The model was developed in a cohort of 1,562 nondiabetic subjects from the San Antonio Heart Study (SAHS) and validated in 2,395 non-diabetic subjects in the Botnia Study. A risk score on the basis of anthropometric parameters, plasma glucose and lipid profile, and blood pressure was computed for each subject. Subjects with a risk score above a certain cut point were considered to represent high-risk individuals, and their 1-h PG concentration during the oral glucose tolerance test was used to further refine their future T2DM risk. RESULTS - We used the San Antonio Diabetes Prediction Model (SADPM) to generate the initial risk score. A risk-score value of 0.065 was found to be an optimal cut point for initial screening and selection of high-risk individuals. A 1-h PG concentration >140 mg/dL in highrisk individuals (whose risk score was >0.065) was the optimal cut point for identification of subjects at increased risk. The two cut points had 77.8, 77.4, and 44.8% (for the SAHS) and 75.8, 71.6, and 11.9% (for the Botnia Study) sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value, respectively, in the SAHS and Botnia Study. CONCLUSIONS - A two-step model, based on the combination of the SADPM and 1-h PG, is a useful tool for the identification of high-risk Mexican-American and Caucasian individuals.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2108-2112
Number of pages5
JournalDiabetes care
Volume34
Issue number9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Sep 2011

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  • Cite this

    Abdulghani, M., Abdul-Ghani, T., Stern, M. P., Karavic, J., Tuomi, T., Bo, I., DeFronzo, R. A., & Groop, L. (2011). Two-step approach for the prediction of future type 2 diabetes risk. Diabetes care, 34(9), 2108-2112. https://doi.org/10.2337/dc10-2201